Putin is losing to Father Time

There are several reasons why Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine this year. One potential reason that has received little attention is his age. Vladimir reaches seventy years old this year. At this life stage most persons are looking forward to retirement or seeing their grandchildren. Now, being President of a major economy at that age is not unheard of. Joe Biden is seventy nine and Donald Trump seventy five. People who continue working at this age usually are driven personalities that retirement would be a detriment. So why would age influence Putin’s current decisions?

To answer that question there are two questions first to pose. First, what is Putin’s professional background. It is well known Putin was a mid-level KGB officer at the time of the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. He was based in communist East Germany and likely felt a rising star (we assume) in the world’s most vaunted secret service only to see it all fall apart. The KGB was dissolved as the Soviet Union collapsed leading to the economic chaos of the 1990s. Like many Russians, Putin’s life was upended. He even admitted he drove a taxi to make ends meet.

The second question would be: what has Putin accomplished in his twenty two years in power. On the one hand Putin is known for stabilizing Russia’s economy after the chaos of the 1990’s. Putin also restored some of Russia’s former glory. He created a new security pact with the Caucus States similar to the old Warsaw Pact. And he did take Crimea, parts of Donbass and South Ossetia along with suppressing Chechnya independence. But externally, Russia has lost major ground against the West. Not only have many former Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, etc.) they have also become successful economies under the European Economic Union. Essentially, they have become beacons of light for countries such as pre-war Ukraine that joining the EU and NATO are beneficial vs. aligning with Russia. And the Caucus states and Russia have for the most part stagnated. There is immense natural resource wealth such as oil, gas, coal and precious metals, but industry and living standards continue to lag. Coupled with a rumored failure to address the Covid-19 pandemic has left Russia a weakened and ignored state.

Merging both answers we see that Putin could be facing an end of life crisis. He is still relatively young, but he only has a decade or two left in power. It’s probably crunch time for Putin to remake Russia’s former glory. It will be hard given it’s stagnant economy and that since Russia’s 2014 taking of Crimea the West is alerted to Putin’s nefarious intentions. All the more so his age could factor into his decision making. How many other authoritarian powers have seen their dreams vaporized and coup d’etats occur in their eighties. Could it be that Putin needs to move now or he will never remake the glory that was once the Soviet Union.

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