With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine there have been heralds of the resumption of the Cold War of the 20th century. It certainly appears that way as the West (U.S., Europe, Canada, etc.) faces off against their old adversaries in Russia and it’s allies. There are shifts in allegiance such as Poland and the Baltic states, but the overall East vs. West axis is the same. But what about third party countries that up until February 24th had no strong allegiance to either side?

Some countries, like China, will be able to chart their own course. They have the economic and military power to navigate, albeit with difficulty, the demanded allegiance by the West and the East. One side demands that countries join in the sanctions; the other side that this is a local special operation. The Cold War proved that third party neutral countries needed to choose a side and even when they did, they became proxies in conflict.

Do these names ring a bell? Cuba, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Rhodesia (Zimbabwe), Angola, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Lebanon, Colombia and many others. These countries either tried to remain neutral or choose a side but were engulfed in civil war. Any government that gained traction or stability was seen as an enemy of the other side so economic pressure, rebellions and insurrections were tools to get countries to flip. So is this happening again in 2022?

At the moment it appears minimal, but that’s only because the invasion is only eight weeks old. A good example of a third-party neutral country is India. They have longstanding ties with the U.S., Russia and Europe. From the West, India enjoys private investment, assistance with issues with Pakistan and close cultural relations mainly with the United Kingdom and the United States. With Russia, India imports natural resources, purchases military equipment and assistance in dealing with China. Up until now, India was able to navigate this fine line because Russia and the U.S. were on decent terms. Now, that is gone. Both sides are now pressing India.

The U.S. and Europe are disillusioned that India has not directly condemned Russia’s invasion (special operation) in Ukraine and has increased Russian oil imports. Russia is angry that India has abstained in United Nations votes and has called for ceasefires. Understandably, India would prefer to remain on good terms with both sides. But is this possible?

What if India continues to buy Russian oil. Or it stops buying Russian oil. Either way, India will have shown one side they are allied with them (even if unintentionally) and the other side will now see India as an obstacle. Israel has already seen some backlash because it tried to remain on good terms with both. Israel had to jump ahead by offering to mediate peace negotiations. Mexico was finally forced to abstain in the vote to expel Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council. A Yes vote would have surely made their northern neighbor angry.

Regardless of which side a country may or may not take (or even if none), what happens if Russia wins. Kyiv now seems out of reach, but if Eastern Ukraine falls to Russia and a separate state is created will that embolden Russia to repeat this success elsewhere. Why not Africa where Zimbabwe and Mozambique are allies. Or Latin America where Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are strong footholds. Can these regions see geopolitical upheaval that will morph into armed conflict. How can a country remain neutral?
Probably by having little, if any, natural resources and minimal internal conflict. Bolivia avoided much of the turmoil of the Cold War because it’s natural gas industry was underdeveloped. There was socioeconomic unbalance but not enough to incentivize to revolt. But, as we’ve seen in the last few decades that Bolivia now has a strong Left including having won presidential victories. And with it’s natural gas industry developed the government has tangled with Western companies. So is there anything a country can realistically do to stave off the upcoming storm?

The unpopular answer may be not much. If Russia has incentive to expand it’s reach we are probably back to the Cold War 2.0. All neutral countries may be able to do is either choose a side or have nimble ambassadors. Or in place internal socioeconomic reforms so the population has less of a reason to fall under the influence of the other side. This is not an ideal situation, but nonetheless a situation that almost every country in the world now faces.